The smoke and mirrors of the reported Virginia graduation rate in 2004

Governor Warner’s recent announcement of a graduation rate of 94.3% for the Class of 2004 plays fast and loose with the figures in an effort to divert attention from yet another negative consequence of high stakes testing. In fact, only 73.5% of the original Class of 2004, i.e., those who entered 9th grade four years before, graduated.

What is being counted as a "diploma?"

Additionally, Governor Warner’s definition of graduation, and thereby his reported graduation rate, includes all diploma options, including Modified Standard Diplomas, which do not count towards graduation under No Child Left Behind rules. Only 69.4% of the students that Governor Warner called graduates received a Standard or Advanced Diploma. This is a decrease from the original Class of 2003, of whom 74.4% earned a regular diploma four years after entering 9th grade.

The percentage of students graduating with regular diplomas (Standard or Advanced Studies), whether you look at only the students remaining for their senior year or the group as they entered high school four years earlier) declined in 2004.

 

Graduation year

Percentage of 12th grade membership receiving regular diplomas

Percentage of 9th graders receiving regular diploma four years later

2004

89.5%

69.4%

2003

93.1%

74.4%

2002

91.5%

71.8%

2001

92.1%

73.2%

2000

92.9%

72.5%

1999

92.7%

72.4%

1998

93%

73.2%

1997

93.9%

75.5%

 

Are Advanced Studies diplomas really rising?

The Governor points out that the number of Advanced Studies Diplomas outnumbered the number of Standard Diplomas in 2004. (Since SOL testing began in 1998, the percentage of students receiving Standard diplomas has risen as the percentage receiving Advanced Studies diplomas has fallen.) In reporting the raw numbers of diplomas given this year, he neglects to give you all the pertinent information such as that the number of Standard and Advanced diplomas awarded this year is thousands less than last year even though the graduating class is larger. He also neglects to report what percentage of graduating seniors received Standard or Advanced Studies diplomas, a more accurate way to compare figures over the years. The percentage of seniors receiving Advanced Studies diplomas dropped from 46.1% last year to 45.1% this year. The percentage of students receiving Standard diplomas dropped from 47% last year to 44% this year.

Are students being pushed out of regular diploma tracks? 


This reduction in the percentage of graduates receiving Standard or Advanced Studies Diplomas means that more of Virginia’s students are being pushed into other high school tracks, such as the Modified Standard Diploma, that require passing fewer SOL tests and have a very low cut score (roughly 25 out of 60 questions on the 8th grade math SOL test and between 12 and 15 out of 42 on the 8th grade English SOL test). Indeed, 10.5% (almost 8,000) of the "graduating" seniors of 2004 received modified Standard, Special, or IEP diplomas, not regular diplomas. Last year, approximately 3% of students received these diplomas. This diversion of students from regular diplomas, along with the almost 26,000 students who didn’t make it to graduation day, was not mentioned at all in the Governor’s glowing comments about students "exceed(ing) our highest expectations."

See our other comments about graduation.